US Presidential Contenders

[Rusty Edge]

I take it the Democrat had his back well?

Too bad there's not more of that kind of thing anymore...

I should have specified that the State Supreme Court justices were elected to 10 year terms, same as the county judges.

It was a friendly work stories kind of thing, not so much about policy as character, and how he liked and respected him as a dedicated public servant. There may have been some jokes. The candidate was nicknamed "Sparks" because he was pro-death penalty.

I understand Ginsberg and Scalia had a great friendship. She appreciated his wit.

[Buster's Uncle]

Again, not enough of that going around anymore - the bad-mouthing and acrimony is a serious problem of its own.

[Rusty Edge]

POLLS

-hillary-clinton-quinnipiac-poll-florida-ohio-pennsylvania/87021744/]http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/07/13/donald-[Sleezebag]-hillary-clinton-quinnipiac-poll-florida-ohio-pennsylvania/87021744/

Poll: [Sleezebag] even with Clinton in three swing states

David M Jackson, USA TODAY 1:32 p.m. EDT July 13, 2016

A new poll has good news for Donald [Sleezebag] in the swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

[Sleezebag] is either slightly ahead or tied with Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in those three key battlegrounds, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released Wednesday.

"He has wiped out Hillary Clinton's lead in Florida; is on the upside of too-close to call races in Florida and Pennsylvania and is locked in a dead heat in Ohio," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

One possible reason for Clinton's drop: her use of private email while secretary of State.

Said Brown: "While there is no definite link between Clinton's drop in Florida and the U.S. Justice Department decision not to prosecute her for her handling of emails, she has lost ground to [Sleezebag] on questions which measure moral standards and honesty."

[Sleezebag]'s only real movement is in Florida, according to these polls; the Ohio and Pennsylvania numbers are relatively constant, within the margin of error.

Also worth noting: The Florida sample is 29% Democrat; 35% of Democrats made up the state electorate in the 2012 presidential election, and the Clinton campaign is predicting a strong Democratic turnout in the Sunshine State this November.

Clinton spokesman Brian Fallon tweeted that "we know the battlegrounds are going to be close til the end. That's why we need to keep working so hard. [Sleezebag] is a serious danger, folks."

Meanwhile, a NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll in Pennsylvania also released Wednesday showed Clinton with a solid lead there. The poll found Clinton up nine points, 45% to 36%, over the real estate mogul.

In two other battleground states, the NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist survey found tighter contests. In Iowa, Clinton led 42% to 39%, while in Ohio, the two presumptive nominees were tied, 39% to 39%.

[Buster's Uncle]

I smell a rat.

[Rusty Edge]

I smell a rat.

Quinipac says otherwise to this poll.  I'm having hardware crashes, and it wants to update on the restart.  I have more to share on the subject.

[Buster's Uncle]

Say on when you can - I trust YOU...

[Rusty Edge]

#%^&%$#

Here's the particulars for the Quinnipac Poll-

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2365

Personal Opinion - Like Nate Silver said, if Gary Johnson is going to be on the state ballot, he should be included in the poll.

I do think Hillary took a hit from the FBI director.

[Dale]

I do think Hillary took a hit from the FBI director.

That's usually what happens when you break the law.

[Buster's Uncle]

 

[Rusty Edge]

!@#$%^&*(

-clinton-tied-battleground-states.html]http://www.politicususa.com/2016/05/10/dont-buy-poll-showing-[Sleezebag]-clinton-tied-battleground-states.html

Here’s Why Quinnipiac’s Polls Showing [Sleezebag] Leading Clinton Are Totally Wrong

By Jason Easley on Wed, Jul 13th, 2016 at 11:30 am

The media has hopped all over three new Quinnipiac University polls showing [Sleezebag] leading Clinton in Pennsylvania and Florida, but the problem is that Quinnipiac is rigging their polls for the best possible [Sleezebag] outcome.

A new batch of polling from Quinnipiac University is turning heads today, as it shows Hillary Clinton and Donald [Sleezebag] essentially tied in three swing states.

In Florida and Pennsylvania, the survey has Clinton beating [Sleezebag] by just a single point, while Clinton trails [Sleezebag] by four points in the all-important battleground state of Ohio.

In a year filled with countless polls showing Clinton solidly leading [Sleezebag] in most hypothetical match-ups, the media quickly seized on Quinnipiac’s findings and treated it as a sign that the spray-tanned billionaire is gaining ground on the former Secretary of State.

Don’t buy the hype.

Relative to other polling, virtually all of Quinnipiac’s general election polling this year has leaned toward the Republican candidate. With other polls taken into account, the Q poll looks more like an outlier than an indication that [Sleezebag] is closing in on Clinton.

In Ohio, for example, every survey – except for Quinnipiac’s – taken throughout this campaign has found the former Secretary of State leading the New York businessman. Clinton beats [Sleezebag] by over five percentage points in Ohio if you take the average of every non-Q poll since March.

Even with Quinnipiac’s results included, Clinton is ahead of [Sleezebag] by an average of seven points in Pennsylvania and over four points in Florida, according to RealClearPolitics.

So, why is this poll wrong and the others showing Clinton ahead probably more accurate? The answer to that is simple: demographics.

Without fail, the voting population has gotten less white for decades. According to Pew Research Center, 2016 will again follow that trend and be “the most diverse in U.S. history.”

The folks at Quinnipiac University missed the memo because the poll they released today is based on the impossible assumption that 2016 will defy decades of trends and become more white, not less. Thus, [Sleezebag]’s support is inflated in each state they polled.

So unfortunately for The Donald, who excitedly posted this poll on his Facebook page today, there will not be a surge of white voters heading to cast their ballots in November. If anything, the non-white electorate [Sleezebag] has so joyously denigrated during his campaign will show up in large numbers to oppose him.

Today’s poll certainly made for an exciting – and, for liberals, frightening – piece of cable news fodder, but we should just discard it and move on.

[Buster's Uncle]

It was the explanation supplied by "Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll" that was the giveaway; read it again and ask yourself if that's much of attempt to be impartial towards Mrs. Clinton...

[Rusty Edge]

Here are the 4-way July polls from RealClearPolitics summary. I figure the Green Party votes will come at Hillary's expense, ( although they won't be on the ballots in all states)  and therefore this is the most conservative estimate of Hillary's strength.
 
 

Poll  Date  Sample  [MoE] /Clinton (D) /[Sleezebag] (R)/ (L) Johnson (L) /Stein (G)/Spread

RCP Average 6/21 - 7/11 -- -- 40.3/ 36.3/ 7.3 /3.6 /Clinton +4.0
McClatchy/Marist 7/5 - 7/9 1053 RV[ 3.0] 40 /35 /10/ 5/ Clinton +5
Economist/YouGov 7/9 - 7/11 932 RV [4.5] 40/ 37 5/ 2 /Clinton +3
Reuters/Ipsos 7/2 - 7/6 1345 RV [2.8] 42 /33/ 6/ 4 /Clinton +9

[Buster's Uncle]

I don't have to tell you, of all people, that Libertarian is more than ultraconservative, but adding the observation that Johnson, God bless 'im, is going to spoil far more on the right, and him and Stein will both turn out a certain number who might not have bothered otherwise, yeah - Green is a temptation to many on the left (fringe especially) who would consider Mrs. Clinton mostly to block Mr. Bill-Of-Goods.

[Rusty Edge]

I don't know what the term conservative means anymore. It's not about being fiscally conservative, as I originally thought, and it's not about conserving energy or the environment. It's not even about being cautious, or there wouldn't have been an Iraq II. It's not really about conserving The Bill of Rights, or there wouldn't be a Patriot Act.

It's simply...a CON.

/Rant.

Okay, I feel better now.

[Buster's Uncle]

I do, too.