US Presidential Contenders

[Yitzi]

Dunno; it's early.

I'll put up €1,000 of my own fake forum money, at 10-1 odds, that he does badly when the first debate does happen, if he even lasts until said debate.

What will qualify as "doing badly"?

[Buster's Uncle]

I think he did badly - and believe me, I want him to do badly a lot more than I want to win 100ec.

[Unorthodox]

By that definition, and your bias, it would be practically impossible for him to do well. 

[Buster's Uncle]

...So if I have any integrity, I'm basically giving €1,000 away...

[Unorthodox]

Ok, so first debate is August 6th.  He's presently up 7% in the polls. 

Why don't we come up with a reasonable figure for what is "laughed out".  I'm willing to put up some forum cash (don't know how to do the symbol) to say he carries a lead through that first debate.  (mostly because I don't really care about the store stuff too much and it'll make it more fun)   

[Unorthodox]

I'll also say that if he's around by the time the primaries start going, and they are OPEN primaries...watch out...a lot of democrats might go vote for him just to mess with the Republicans.   

[Buster's Uncle]

Let's ask Rusty to judge [Sleezebag]'s performance, if there's any doubt, not that there will be.

[Rusty Edge]

First televised debate is Tuesday, August 4th.

Monday Feb 1st. Iowa Caucus  Apparently you can register at the door, so it's essentially "open"

Tuesday Feb  9th New Hampshire primary. Closed.

Saturday Feb 20th  South Carolina primary. Open.

Tuesday Feb 23rd   Nevada caucus   Wiki says- "The Nevada Republican Party caucus is a closed caucus open to those who were registered 30 days before the caucus date, and 17-year-olds who are eligible to vote in the general election in November."

It seems that the Nevada Republicans are working toward a primary, rather than trying to fix the flaws in their caucus system ( low participation, slow counting and reporting ). Whether they can organize that before the time comes remains to be seen.

[Rusty Edge]

I'll also say that if he's around by the time the primaries start going, and they are OPEN primaries...watch out...a lot of democrats might go vote for him just to mess with the Republicans.   

I think that would be the smartest thing the democrats could do. It will spend the Republicans money, and a longer primary campaign will cause rifts that campaign workers  can't forgive, and they may sit out the general election. Likewise, the ads will go negative, and some of the voters will be disgusted with the Republicans and refuse to vote for them.


More importantly, a high crossover vote will encourage [Sleezebag] to run  as an independent, his ego being what it is. To win Republicans need themselves and independents, and a well funded independent would cut into that.

That could make Hillary a runaway favorite, even with 40-45% of the vote.

   Excuse me, while I find the thought of another Clinton or Bush intolerable.

A discrete movement of democrats crossing over in the Feb and Mar primaries and caucuses and nationally telling pollsters that they are stout Democrats, but they are enthused for The Donald...   

   Excuse me again, while I find the thought of another Clinton or Bush intolerable.



As for a debate winner, I'd say go by the next Fox poll after the debate. If [Sleezebag] loses his number 1 position, he loses big.

[Unorthodox]

As for a debate winner, I'd say go by the next Fox poll after the debate. If [Sleezebag] loses his number 1 position, he loses big.

I'll take that as the thermometer. 

Freaks and clowns on parade, and my money at this stage is still on the freaks and clowns...gonna be interesting either way.  Don't know if I'll neccessarily WATCH, mind, just interesting to see what comes. 


NPR this morning on the way in had an interesting piece on this.  Mostly focused on how Donald is different than previous self-funded campaigns, and the various advantages/disadvantages that can give him over the traditional candidates.  (basically, he travels and stays everywhere on his own property where previous campaigns were from businessmen in other areas.  And campaign rules give a discount on ad$ for self funded campaigns, so his $ go further than his competitors, even though their superpacks might have more $.)

The CRAZIEST thing, and they didn't explain the maths behind it, is that his SELF-FUNDED campaign right now has actually GENERATED PROFIT.  As long as he can keep in the news cycle, it will continue to do so.  They openly questioned whether this was his intent from the get go, just to make noise and $.  I'm guessing it's from some kind of trademarked stuff he's done that the news has to pay royalties on?  I'm not a finance guy, but can't think of any other way it's a get rich quick scheme. 

[Rusty Edge]

I don't understand that myself, other than if he's staying on his own property, or appraising investment property,  and somehow able to charge travel/lodging  as both a political and business expense for tax purposes. Or get reporters to stay at his hotels for access, maybe.

[PLATO]

While I think that [Sleezebag] is a bit of an idiot when it comes to politics, he is pushing issues that have been simmering with many voters in a plain talk kind of way.  I am hopeful that when voters actually start to look at solutions to these problems that he will begin to fade rather quickly.  At this stage of the campaign I think his involvement is a net plus for the republicans.  Lot's of mudslinging will be out of the way before primary season gets going in earnest.  Many issues will have positions tested that probably would not have been at this early stage.  The national focus right now is on the republican party and it is their candidates that are gaining in name recognition and getting the nightly sound bites.

If this continues into February, then it might become a negative, but for now I think [Sleezebag] is a net plus.

Also...Rusty, I couldn't agree more on the Clinton-Bush comment.  With 20 out of the last 28 years being dominated by those two families, it is definitely time for a change!

[Rusty Edge]

Also...Rusty, I couldn't agree more on the Clinton-Bush comment.  With 20 out of the last 28 years being dominated by those two families, it is definitely time for a change!

End the American oligarchy!

Welcome to alphacentauri , PLATO !

[Buster's Uncle]

Thing is, if [Sleezebag] hasn't utterly humiliated himself in the polls by the time he admits he's lost the primaries, he'll probably run as an independent - this would be very bad news, of the Perot sort, for the right...

[PLATO]

Not so sure that he would run.  [Sleezebag]'s ground teams are virtually non-existent.  He would have to have party support to mount any kind of an effective run.  Even Perot had a fairly well organized ground team.