US Presidential Contenders

[ColdWizard]

I almost wonder if this is some sort experiment to see how much bullspit the public will put up with. Some oligarchs making a $1 bet, a la Trading Places, to see if we'll vote third party if we have two really bad candidates.

[Unorthodox]

On my 5th state since leaving the one I live in. I am frankly amazed at the lack of presidential yard signs and bumper stickers. I've seen a couple of T rump yard signs and a couple of Bernie bumper stickers. Way different than when I made this trip 4 years ago.

That kind of tells me that people aren't enthused for their candidate.

The Halloween stores aren't making a deal over candidate masks being available yet either.  Every election cycle that was like free advertising for them, get that on the news...it's like they want no part of this. 

[Rusty Edge]

I almost wonder if this is some sort experiment to see how much bullspit the public will put up with. Some oligarchs making a $1 bet, a la Trading Places, to see if we'll vote third party if we have two really bad candidates.

Yeah... Like a choice between no qualifications and no integrity.
Kang and Kodos all over again.

[Rusty Edge]

NEWSPAPER ENDORSEMENTS-

*Johnson-
New Hampshire Union-Leader, Winston-Salem Journal, and Richmond Times Dispatch

*Hillary-
Dallas Morning News

*T rump- ( nothing so far, but I'm sure he has the National Enquirer endorsement in his pocket )


Well, this is a bit muddled. Johnson claims 4 endorsements, although I don't know which other one he means.

Also, Hillary has a multitude of newspaper endorsements from before the convention. It's a bit blurry as to whether any of them will be extended or re-issued or withdrawn.
So you can say she has a multitude or none. Some were probably going to endorse her since the day she announced.

[Rusty Edge]

The Libertarian Party is asking the General Services Administration that Johnson and Weld be included in security briefings, as per the laws.

[E_T]

About time

I am so frustrated that things are looking bad for getting him into the debates... 

[Rusty Edge]

1) Even if he misses the first debate, he may qualify for the others.

2) He may be peaking too late, but there is a rising tide. I see it in articles about Johnson as a spoiler, or as doing well among Millennials and independents, and I see it in the comments sections of articles. It used to be there were [Sleezebag] Trolls and Hillary shills predominating, but now there are numerous Johnson supporters to set the record straight, and I suspect they are mostly fast-typing Millennials.

3) As the race tightens up, while Johnson can't "run the table" without a debate presence, the 12th Ammendment scenario becomes increasingly likely.

[E_T]

Yeah, but the thing is it will be TOO LATE for the start of Early Voting and maybe, the turning in of Absentee Ballots.  The First (and the VP) Debates both are before then.  Which is why, IMVHO, they need to be in those two.

Deadline is 21st?? 

[E_T]

And if it does get thrown to the House, with the Three in the mix, how do you think it will all shake out?  Especially with any likely Lame Ducks that will still be seated?  Or would it go to the New Congress?

[Rusty Edge]

It goes to the new congress, one vote per state. There are usually more red than blue, or would be in a deadlock. I'm grilling, I'll get back to you tonight.

[Rusty Edge]

Okay I translated the current version of Nate Silver's best model, the "Polls Plus forecast" into this map. Everything with a margin of 2.5% or less I left a neutral gray. Maine and Nebraska award electors by Congressional district, rather than as a whole, hence the stripes.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/WL9mw

So, fill in the map as you see fit. Johnson's best polling states are New Mexico and Utah, where he polls in the 20s, followed by Idaho, Colorado and Iowa, where he polls in the high teens.

IF nobody wins 270, it goes to the new House, and they vote state by state in January, among the top 3 electoral vote winners. Since there are more red states than blue, it basically rules out a Clinton presidency. So the Democrats back Johnson to  thwart [Sleezebag]. Basically, Johnson will have from November to January to make his case to the public and to members of Congress, and to recruit a tri-partisan administration. If the polls ask Johnson or [Sleezebag]? I think they will favor Gary. [Sleezebag] support is limited. Anti- establishment can claim victory for upsetting the status quo. Anti-Hillary is a larger block than pro-[Sleezebag]. Presumably all of those that endorsed Hillary over [Sleezebag] will be flipping to Gary.

Now the VP will likely be the same party as the new Senate majority, because they only choose from the top 2. Gary would have to find Brainy Bill another job in his administration.

[Rusty Edge]

GLEANINGS-

* Johnson and Weld to appear on CBS 60 Minutes tomorrow night- 7:30 PM ET, 7 PM Pacific.
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/preview-the-libertarian-ticket/

* Annecdotally there is a large [Sleezebag] sign near here, but somebody keeps removing the "T". Frequent visitors to this thread can imagine what that looks like.

* As for recent [Sleezebag] News, The New York Times has a nice summary-
-presidential-race.html?_r=0]http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/18/us/politics/donald-[Sleezebag]-presidential-race.html?_r=0

* The Clinton Campaign is starting to panic. Apparently they were taking blacks and Millennials for granted. They may have based assumptions on a 90% black turnout. It also seems that they considered the election to be a binary choice. Knowing that Millennials rejected [Sleezebag], they counted them mostly in their column. However, many are going for Johnson and Stein. They are getting as many surrogates onto the campaign trail as possible, and planning a scare campaign to get them to vote for Hillary.

[E_T]

For anyone that might be confused as to broadcast date, it is Sunday Evening (rusty had post d at after midnight ET, so just wanted to clarify the date).

[Rusty Edge]

GLEANINGS-

*538  ( my wife is asking me what Silver says every day now )  - Clinton- 56.8% / [Sleezebag]- 43.2%
Hillary is holding on to Colorado by 1.9 % If it flipped to [Sleezebag], he'd win. If it went to Johnson, it would deadlock, and go to the House.

* Don King endorses Donald [Sleezebag] today.

* According to a Pew poll - "No matter what happens, very few say they'll be excited about the outcome of the election. Just 11 percent of people say they'll be excited if [Sleezebag] wins and 12 percent say so if Clinton wins."

* Annecdotally I saw some [Sleezebag] signs on today's drive. Hillary had a house or two. These are traditionally Republican counties, so it's not a surprise. In fact the surprise remains the lack of yard sign support, and the absence of bumper stickers, for anyone.

[Buster's Uncle]

Nothing about the real George Bush saying he was voting for Mrs. Clinton?