US Presidential Contenders

[Rusty Edge]

Some of these Clump searches make me want to wash my hands.  Here's an editorial by Johnson in the New Hampshire Union Leader -  -collapses-we-offer-republicans-a-better-choice--20161010]http://www.unionleader.com/columns/gary-johnson-as-[Sleezebag]-collapses-we-offer-republicans-a-better-choice--20161010

Another View -- Gary Johnson: As [Sleezebag] collapses, we offer Republicans a better choice

By GARY JOHNSON

THE ART OF POLITICS is about finding common ground with as many voters as possible without abandoning core principles of governing. It is not about sticking with candidates who are utterly flawed, just because they represent your political party.

My core principles are about limiting spending by government, defending the civil liberties in the Constitution and preserving the right of all people to live their lives as they choose.

As the former Republican governor of the predominantly-Democrat New Mexico, I have a proven record of fiscal conservatism and social tolerance.

Together with my running mate Bill Weld, the former Republican governor of Massachusetts, we present a powerful alternative to an extreme and fearful partisanship gripping America in this presidential campaign.

When Donald [Sleezebag] holds a press conference an hour and a half before the debate begins with the intent of deflecting attention from his own misogyny by trying to convince us the Clintons are worse, we probably knew everything we needed to know about this debate, and more important, this campaign.

Character and trust are everything. It shouldn’t matter whether a microphone is turned on or not. Mr. [Sleezebag]’s comments about women — which we have all now heard — aren’t any more appropriate in a locker room than on national TV.

We have fallen through the looking glass. Thanks to two candidates who are each running on a platform of not being the other, we are in historically uninspiring territory.

Thanks to some great questions from the audience, however, there were a few brief discussions of issues. I even heard some things from each of them with which I agreed.
But the bigger question hanging over the entire debate is whether either of these candidates can be believed.

Without any confidence that a President will have the integrity, character and principles to actually put the nation first, nothing else matters.

Americans deserve better. Women deserve better. And Republicans, and Democrats, deserve better. They deserve candidates who are not embarrassments.

They need, and they have, another choice in Bill Weld and myself. We are on the ballot in all 50 states. We have records of success in the states we served. We are not asking voters to hold their noses or take leaps of faith. And we feel no need to have differing public and private positions.

As secretary of state, Hillary Clinton was responsible for promoting counter-productive policies in Iraq, Libya, Egypt and Syria.

In contrast, I maintain that our foreign policy and military actions must support clear U.S. interests. That seems obvious, but during the past 15 years, that has not been the case.

Our interests are our lives, our property and our freedom. They are not necessarily a desire to shape the world in our own image or to pick winners and losers in civil wars on the other side of the globe.

Our nation needs the confidence that its commander-in-chief will act predictably and responsibly to defend America, and not to aggress elsewhere in our name.

Moreover, Ms. Clinton is an advocate for government and the state, and not for the people. In speeches to New York banks, she declared the importance of having a public position and a private position on controversial issues.

That’s not being honest and straightforward with the American people.

Many Americans simply cannot bring themselves to support either of these candidates. As a former Republican, I continue to be shocked that party members allowed themselves to nominate Mr. [Sleezebag] as their standard-bearer.

With the flood of Republicans withdrawing their endorsements of Mr. [Sleezebag], and House Speaker Paul Ryan refusing now to defend him, his campaign seems to be at its end. With [Sleezebag] on the ticket, the Republican Party is entering a death spiral spawned by its embrace of nativism and xenophobia.

Even putting aside Mr. [Sleezebag]’s outrageous policy positions on building a wall, on deporting 11 million immigrants, on imposing 35 percent tariffs, or in pledging to torture family members of terrorists, can we really know what he actually believes?

We speak often of reaching across party lines if elected to get things done for America. Today, we would like to reach across party lines to invite our Republican friends to join our campaign. There is a presidential ticket with two candidates who served honorably and effectively as Republican governors, and we are it.

.Gary Johnson is the former two-term governor of New Mexico and the Libertarian Party nominee for President.

[Yitzi]

He's right...but Gary Johnson seems to be an embarrasment in his own way as well.  If only the libertarians had picked a different candidate for this year...

Some of these Clump searches make me want to wash my hands.  Here's an editorial by Johnson in the New Hampshire Union Leader -  http://www.unionleader.com/columns/gary-johnson-as-T rump-collapses-we-offer-republicans-a-better-choice--20161010

Another View -- Gary Johnson: As T rump collapses, we offer Republicans a better choice

By GARY JOHNSON

THE ART OF POLITICS is about finding common ground with as many voters as possible without abandoning core principles of governing. It is not about sticking with candidates who are utterly flawed, just because they represent your political party.

My core principles are about limiting spending by government, defending the civil liberties in the Constitution and preserving the right of all people to live their lives as they choose.

As the former Republican governor of the predominantly-Democrat New Mexico, I have a proven record of fiscal conservatism and social tolerance.

Together with my running mate Bill Weld, the former Republican governor of Massachusetts, we present a powerful alternative to an extreme and fearful partisanship gripping America in this presidential campaign.

When Donald T rump holds a press conference an hour and a half before the debate begins with the intent of deflecting attention from his own misogyny by trying to convince us the Clintons are worse, we probably knew everything we needed to know about this debate, and more important, this campaign.

Character and trust are everything. It shouldn’t matter whether a microphone is turned on or not. Mr. T rump’s comments about women — which we have all now heard — aren’t any more appropriate in a locker room than on national TV.

We have fallen through the looking glass. Thanks to two candidates who are each running on a platform of not being the other, we are in historically uninspiring territory.

Thanks to some great questions from the audience, however, there were a few brief discussions of issues. I even heard some things from each of them with which I agreed.
But the bigger question hanging over the entire debate is whether either of these candidates can be believed.

Without any confidence that a President will have the integrity, character and principles to actually put the nation first, nothing else matters.

Americans deserve better. Women deserve better. And Republicans, and Democrats, deserve better. They deserve candidates who are not embarrassments.

They need, and they have, another choice in Bill Weld and myself. We are on the ballot in all 50 states. We have records of success in the states we served. We are not asking voters to hold their noses or take leaps of faith. And we feel no need to have differing public and private positions.

As secretary of state, Hillary Clinton was responsible for promoting counter-productive policies in Iraq, Libya, Egypt and Syria.

In contrast, I maintain that our foreign policy and military actions must support clear U.S. interests. That seems obvious, but during the past 15 years, that has not been the case.

Our interests are our lives, our property and our freedom. They are not necessarily a desire to shape the world in our own image or to pick winners and losers in civil wars on the other side of the globe.

Our nation needs the confidence that its commander-in-chief will act predictably and responsibly to defend America, and not to aggress elsewhere in our name.

Moreover, Ms. Clinton is an advocate for government and the state, and not for the people. In speeches to New York banks, she declared the importance of having a public position and a private position on controversial issues.

That’s not being honest and straightforward with the American people.

Many Americans simply cannot bring themselves to support either of these candidates. As a former Republican, I continue to be shocked that party members allowed themselves to nominate Mr. T rump as their standard-bearer.

With the flood of Republicans withdrawing their endorsements of Mr. T rump, and House Speaker Paul Ryan refusing now to defend him, his campaign seems to be at its end. With T rump on the ticket, the Republican Party is entering a death spiral spawned by its embrace of nativism and xenophobia.

Even putting aside Mr. T rump’s outrageous policy positions on building a wall, on deporting 11 million immigrants, on imposing 35 percent tariffs, or in pledging to torture family members of terrorists, can we really know what he actually believes?

We speak often of reaching across party lines if elected to get things done for America. Today, we would like to reach across party lines to invite our Republican friends to join our campaign. There is a presidential ticket with two candidates who served honorably and effectively as Republican governors, and we are it.

.Gary Johnson is the former two-term governor of New Mexico and the Libertarian Party nominee for President.

[Unorthodox]

Johnson is being vilified locally based off something about wanting rights for vaping. 

I don't know that TEH CHURCH has ever made an official statement, but general Mormon sentiment (at least in Utah) is Vaping = Smoking, and is thus of satan. 

[E_T]

I think that, by far, he is the best candidate that the Libertarians have put forward from their party, in the whole history of that party...

And if he could get a national stage that shows him in contrast to the others, he has a very good chance of winning...

[Spacy]

I have seen over the past couple days a couple adds by Democrats doing Gary bashing.  Not so much adds, but Dems not up for office this year giving interviews and not talking about how good Hillary is (why they were 'supposed' to be on the air to begin with) or doing Donald bashing (which is getting old - we know he is a nutter), but instead talking smack about Gary.  As they are often being interviewed by Dem media types to begin with.... well... very intentional Gary bashing in the hopes that they won't bleed any more for 3rd parties. 

Gary missing the 2nd debate is probably the best thing for him.  Missing the 1st was just bad though, as his name is't really out there enough to be ID'ed as a valid 3rd option.  If he does make it into the 3rd, his best course of action will be "hey, leave me out of it, you to go back to trout slapping each other."

[Rusty Edge]

He's right...but Gary Johnson seems to be an embarrasment in his own way as well.  If only the libertarians had picked a different candidate for this year...

The other frontrunner candidates running for the Libertarian Party nomination-

1) Had no elected government experience.
2) As "real" Libertarians took positions against the right of states to issue driver's licenses and the  legitimacy of the '64 Civil Rights Act, among other things.
3) Were unknowns, with 2 exceptions-
   A) John McAfee ( yes, that McAfee) the eccentric millionaire who fled his home in Belize to avoid being questioned about the murder of his neighbor . More of a philosopher/idealist than a politician. He wasn't serious about trying to become president, he just wanted the title of presidential nominee for a speaking tour.

    B) Austin Petersen, former FOX Business correspondent. A young, handsome, pro-life atheist and best known for advocating the right of gay married couples to defend their marijuana patches with machine guns. He refutes the basic Libertarian concept, the non-aggression principle. It's basically the oath of office to join the party, because using force in a society with negligible rules causes it to fail. As strange as that sounds, I predict that he will succeed Gary, unless there is an infusion of displaced Republicans.

Gary Johnson's experience and pragmatism makes him a credible candidate. He's the only one who wanted Bill Weld, who faced strong opposition. Weld couldn't have made it without Johnson promising that Johnson could get 5 % and officially establish the party with the federal government, but only with the help of Weld to lend credibility, fund  raise, and make media contacts.

I assure you, the other candidates would have been dismissed as unqualified lunatic fringe, regardless of how interesting they were on tv.

[Rusty Edge]

Johnson is being vilified locally based off something about wanting rights for vaping. 

I don't know that TEH CHURCH has ever made an official statement, but general Mormon sentiment (at least in Utah) is Vaping = Smoking, and is thus of satan.

My guess is that Evan McMullen is behind it. There are constant appeals for Gary to take a position on vaping, or the Dakota pipeline, or Fracking, etc, but I don't recall him talking about it. Evan McMullen, who had been cordial,  said Gary wasn't fit to be President after some gaff, and Johnson has simply ignored his existence ever since.   Thing is, McMullen now wants to have a minor party debate to get some attention. It's not going to happen. Gary did that 4 years ago.  This year he's making the case that he's the first choice, not merely first among 3rd parties.

Stein is playing for 5%, but McMullen is only on about 10 ballots, and is simply trying to pick off Utah in a 12th Amendment scenario.

[Rusty Edge]

I think it's a safe bet that Johnson won't be included in the last debate. For example one of the qualifying polls is at 5%, but that was back on Sep 25th. They simply need not poll again, and that 5 will be a millstone on the average. Time is running out.

Back to a 12th Amendment scenario for Johnson, and I have my doubts about [Sleezebag] being competitive/ I hear Georgia is a potential battleground state. 

4 States decide the presidential election- Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina. [Sleezebag] would have been wise to spend all of his time there, and making the election a referendum on Clinton and the direction of the country.... but [Sleezebag] HAS TO MAKE EVERYTHING ALL ABOUT HIMSELF.  538 has all of those states  Clinton. In fact it projects the EC to go 318.3 to Clinton, 219.6 to [Sleezebag]. CRAP! I have a prediction of a 50-100 EC margin for Hillary on another website. It's almost blown.

I saw some head to head polling today. Johnson beat [Sleezebag], but not Hillary. However, about 20% still don't know who he is.

[Rusty Edge]

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2016-10-11/vote-for-gary-johnson-or-jill-stein-if-youre-not-in-a-swing-state

The page is copy resistant, but argues that by voting 3rd party is solidly red or blue states, you can send a strong message" to work together "without changing the outcome, which you can't do anyway in most states.

[Rusty Edge]

538 has [Sleezebag]'s chances at  16.6 %

An article there discussing historical data compared to now concludes with -

"As with any study of modern elections, we’re limited by sample size. That’s one reason that the FiveThirtyEight models give [Sleezebag] roughly a 15 percent chance of winning instead of zero. But a [Sleezebag] comeback would be like nothing we’ve ever seen before."

[E_T]

What do they say about Johnson?

[Buster's Uncle]

Very little, I bet.

[Rusty Edge]

Little. There is more "uncertainty" with regard to him, and certainty is a concern in their models.

Historically 3rd parties fade. Johnson was defying that trend. Nate said he might have to adjust his model in the future. But he's in the upper single digits in national polls, ( down from as high as 13 )  and Nate's best model still has him well above  the 5% finish  necessary to certify the Libertarians as a minor party.

Johnson's strength is with Millennials, ( who are always under sampled in polls because they don't have land lines.), active duty military ( who are also really hard to poll ), and independents. I believe that for these reasons, he will outperform his polls in the election. Also, I think that campaigning is changing. sure The Greatest Generation, The Silent Generation, and to a lesser extent The Baby Boomers get their news the old fashioned way. But the Xers and Millennials get their info from the web & social media, where it's more inexpensive to reach them.

But 538 works primarily by aggregating state polls, because the Electoral College works that way. Essentially [Sleezebag], Hillary, and McMullen are in a 3 way tie in Utah. Gary is in 4th place with 14% and Jill at 1.

Gary is better in his home state of New Mexico.  This is as good a place as any to say that Utah has 6 EC votes and New Mexico only 5 so if Johnson and McMullen pick them off in a 12th Amendment scenario, it's between the top 3 candidates, so Gary would be shut out.

But [Sleezebag] is still falling. I think his support may bottom at the aprox 34% that thinks he won the last debate. But then again, that's based on people believing his "it was only bragging" defense. I think there will be a lot of women corroborating the groper stories, and the Christians will have to wrestle with it, and it's implications towards [Sleezebag]'s dishonesty.

Did I mention that Silver came out with an analysis Tweet that said that Clinton would win by 458 to 80 in the EC if only women voted? And if only men voted, [Sleezebag] would win by 350 to 188. So the Trumpers started Tweeting that we should repeal the 19th Amendment, which gave women the right to vote. If you're a married man you can imagine how well that went over...

[Rusty Edge]

You know, as much frustration as I experienced earlier in the year when my state went Never [Sleezebag], but were only joined by Utah and Ohio.... and he secured the nomination anyway. Then we saw people get in line behind him, some of them former Never Trumpers.   

But I'm laughing a lot now at these Republican hokey pokey dancers trying to make up their mind about where the [Sleezebag] train is going. Life is so much easier for Republicans like my wife who think Never means Never. It was a hard decision, but one that only had to be made once.

[E_T]

The Consensus over at WPC is that the Republican Party might not survive this.  But then, a Lot of Republicans are likely going to just put their heads into the Sand and wish that it was 4 years later. 

The Congressional Republicans are sweating big time, because it is very likely that a LOT of Republican voters might not even show at the polls (where as, if they knew about Johnson, they would be more confident that some of them would still show up).  And all of them are scrambling to distance themselves from [Sleezebag]...

And, the Democrats whom really don't like Hilary, at this point in time, they see no real alternative and are more voting against [Sleezebag] than they will be voting for Hillary.  Either they don't know about Johnson or think that he isn't qualified, due to the Aleppo BS, were to see him on the stage in the last debate, they would flock to him. 

With these two groups leaning towards him, he would have a very real chance, to not only have the election get thrown to the House, but to actually win outright...

The main focus, if we see no alternative to getting him onto the stage, is to really start working on seriously reforming not only the Primary Processes, for all 50 states, but to revamp the Electoral process.  Only then might we keep something like this from happening again!!