Author Topic: US Presidential Contenders  (Read 290501 times)

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Offline Buster's Uncle

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Re: US Presidential Contenders
« Reply #1575 on: July 06, 2016, 04:57:29 PM »
I expect you'll find out a lot about the political leanings of their clients from the questions...

Offline Rusty Edge

Re: US Presidential Contenders
« Reply #1576 on: July 06, 2016, 06:01:40 PM »
I got an e-mail. It's corporate affiliations seem to be different than those of the website.
It seems to be considered safe for kids in ratings. It contained another 5 or 6 question survey. It also seems to be looking for personal information, such as sex, income, etc.  I can envision an avalanche of spam.

At the moment I decided to ignore the e-mail, and see what other questions future e-mails may bring.

I'm thinking that the survey is from an unrelated advertiser, and has no bearing on the polls from Morning Consult. Even so, I intend to read the surveys in my inbox and compare with future polls from Morning Consult, to be sure.

Offline Buster's Uncle

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Re: US Presidential Contenders
« Reply #1577 on: July 06, 2016, 06:16:48 PM »
Questions tell a lot - there's a science to polling, I don't have to tell you, and some polls are simply inept, others cooked by design.  There are Liars, Liars who will go to the Devil, The Pig, and then there's Pollsters - absolutely true numbers can be the very best liars.

-Nate Silver, on the other hand, I trust.  He's just a math/politics nerd digging for truth - possibly also to found the First Foundation (I hope Lori sees that joke).

Offline Rusty Edge

Re: US Presidential Contenders
« Reply #1578 on: July 06, 2016, 06:32:23 PM »
I believe Nate Silver and 538, just as I believed Zogby before him.


Offline Dale

Re: US Presidential Contenders
« Reply #1579 on: July 06, 2016, 11:25:34 PM »
AEC Admit They've Lost Count And Will Have To Start Again

http://www.sbs.com.au/comedy/article/2016/07/04/aec-admit-theyve-lost-count-and-will-have-start-again

Quote
The Australian Electoral Commission have released a statement admitting that they have been forced to start the count again, after getting distracted by an interesting looking bird.

 

A spokesperson for the AEC told The Backburner that, despite getting very clearly close to finalising the vote count on Sunday evening, they briefly lost track of what they were doing when a bird flew into the room and completely forgot where they were up to.

 

“Although none of us are to blame for the presence of the bird, we will be the first to admit that keeping a strictly mental tally of the ten million odd votes and their respective preferences was a bit foolish and maybe emblematic of some hubris on our part.

 

“In future we will try and ensure a more bird-proof system is implemented than our current system of counting them by hand and then telling Dave what number we’re up to - it turns out the risk of Dave seeing a bird he did not anticipate and losing that number completely is too high to risk an entire federal election on it.”

 

The AEC anticipates that the recount should be done by the end of this week, depending on how reliable Dave continues to be at remembering the vote count.

 

“We’ve closed all the windows in the office so there’s no chance that bird will get in this time, which we believe should eliminate some of the risks, although Dave just got broken up with yesterday so his mind isn’t exactly on the job.

 

“We’re working to ensure that the final count is delivered as soon as possible, it is the solemn duty of the AEC to deliver the results within the very short time frame that the Australian public will remain interested in this.”

 

Some voters have expressed impatience at the lack of a result and vowed to remain interested in the election for at least another two days:


“It’s absolutely crucial that we know who will be deciding the outcome of the next 3 years of Australian politics, there is nothing more important and I will keep an incredibly keen eye on this until I inevitably get bored of it in a day or so.”


;)
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Offline Buster's Uncle

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Re: US Presidential Contenders
« Reply #1580 on: July 06, 2016, 11:33:35 PM »
BTW, I polled the one Western Aussie I know of, and he voted Coalition lower house, ALA upper - he's a big Pentecostal Christian.  -No punchline, it being true.

Offline Dale

Re: US Presidential Contenders
« Reply #1581 on: July 07, 2016, 02:09:52 AM »
ALA (Australian Liberty Alliance) is one of those extreme right wing type of parties which promotes extreme Nationalism, isolationism and Islamic/Asian Xenophobia and climate change denial.

In many circles in Australia, your friend would be classified as a racist, a climate change denier and a massive [poop]-stain on Australia.  It's also people who voted like him (for extremist parties) that caused the unworkable Upper House that we had (and look like getting again).  I suspect your friend would secretly support T rump.

No punchline, it being true.
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Re: US Presidential Contenders
« Reply #1582 on: July 07, 2016, 02:17:53 AM »
Pentecostal - he's a lovely fellow who would no doubt be horrified that you think that and really believe you're wrong.  I dunno about climate change, but he's certainly very into denial...

-To his credit, he does not, in fact, think much of the Pig.  But he was telling me about some evil election fraud shenanigans Labor allegedly pulled - true for all I know, but if he was a yank and a few names were changed, it would set off all sorts of right-wing fantasy bullcrap alarms.

Kids; you can tell 'em anything until you can't tell them anything for about ten years until life teaches them...

Offline Dale

Re: US Presidential Contenders
« Reply #1583 on: July 07, 2016, 04:46:25 AM »
Pentecostal - he's a lovely fellow who would no doubt be horrified that you think that and really believe you're wrong.  I dunno about climate change, but he's certainly very into denial...

-To his credit, he does not, in fact, think much of the Pig.  But he was telling me about some evil election fraud shenanigans Labor allegedly pulled - true for all I know, but if he was a yank and a few names were changed, it would set off all sorts of right-wing fantasy bullcrap alarms.

Kids; you can tell 'em anything until you can't tell them anything for about ten years until life teaches them...


It's not just me that thinks that about the ALA.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-13/australian-liberty-alliance-says-members-vilified/7242778
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australian-liberty-alliance-the-antiislam-donald-trumpstyle-party-claims-major-growth-20160406-go08lq.html
http://www.news.com.au/entertainment/angry-anderson-joins-antiislam-party-to-chase-a-senate-seat-at-the-federal-election/news-story/cf23fd04d6e709c99d5feaeacb818f11

The three main news outlets (one left, one centre and one right).

The ALA was launched by Geert Wilders last year.  Says it all.

EDIT:
About the Labor fraud thing he spoke of.......

Okay, they did some really dodgy campaigning.  They claimed that the Coalition was going to privatise Medicare (our universal healthcare system).  Yes, that is not strictly true.  A budgetary committee did recommend last year to privatise certain parts of Medicare, such as the administration side to provide savings and efficiency.  But never has the entire privatisation of Medicare been on the cards.

Labor did play an entire scare campaign on that.  But the Coalition did not come out strongly opposed to smash the scare campaign down.  So their fault too.  In the end, Coalition has a history of saying one thing and doing the opposite on the huge items.  So it's pretty easy to draw a similarity between previous things and Medicare.
The most worthwhile thing is to try to put happiness into the lives of others. - Lord Baden Powell

Offline Rusty Edge

Re: US Presidential Contenders
« Reply #1584 on: July 07, 2016, 05:48:51 AM »
Decided to post this one from the Chicago Tribune Editorial Board.

-alternatives-stein-johnson-edit-0707-20160706-story.html]http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/editorials/ct-clinton-[Sleezebag]-alternatives-stein-johnson-edit-0707-20160706-story.html

Editorial: Can't vote for [Sleezebag] or Clinton? You have 2 legitimate alternatives

Editorial Board

July 6, 2016, 1:00 PM



In the best of all possible worlds, the U.S. presidential election would feature a pair of candidates who don't engage in juvenile insults or racially charged rhetoric, don't provoke the Federal Bureau of Investigation to offer proof of serial dishonesty and have no history of bankruptcy or complicity in White House scandals. Ideally, these two nominees would distinguish themselves with their integrity, coherent policy views and ability to address important issues in fresh, substantive and truthful ways.

Millions of Americans have been queasy contemplating the choice of Hillary Clinton and Donald [Sleezebag]. You may think voters are never happy with their options — was anyone thrilled by John Kerry vs. George W. Bush in 2004? — but this year is notably worse than the norm. The sorry arc of [Sleezebag]'s bloviation, and now the FBI's detailed demolition of Clinton's repeated untruths about her recklessness with classified U.S. information, only compound the plight of many American voters.

"Negative views of Mrs. Clinton are at least 12 percentage points higher than those of any of the four Democratic nominees since 1992," reported The Wall Street Journal about recent poll results. "Negative views of Mr. [Sleezebag] are at least 14 points worse than those of any of the last five GOP nominees." That was before FBI Director James Comey called Clinton's behavior "extremely careless" and [Sleezebag] offered peculiar praise to Saddam Hussein as a prolific slayer of terrorists. ([Sleezebag] didn't mention that Hussein also was adept at slaying his own people.)

In short, our normally polarized politics are more polarized than ever. Only 1 in 6 white males has a positive opinion of Clinton, while only 1 in 10 African-Americans looked favorably on [Sleezebag]. Much of the support each candidate has is really withering contempt for the other.

Well, American voter, things are not as bad as you may think. You have not one respectable alternative to these candidates but two. They are Gary Johnson, nominated in June by the Libertarian Party, and Jill Stein, who is expected to be chosen at the Green Party national convention next month. Thanks partly to the major party nominees, these two (who won the same nominations four years ago) are gaining the kind of attention that minor party candidates rarely get. Though neither is likely to be on the ballot in all 50 states, they will be options for the vast majority of voters.

RealClearPolitics reports that in recent polls featuring all four candidates, Johnson averages 7 percent of the national vote and Stein 4 percent. Those are impressive numbers, given that in 2012, neither broke the 1 percent threshold. It's not hard to imagine them rising this fall as [Sleezebag] and Clinton savage each other's records.

Stein, a Massachusetts physician and native of Highland Park, offers herself as the logical choice for supporters of Bernie Sanders, who shares her progressive views on many issues — single-payer
health insurance, green energy, raising taxes, campaign finance regulation, military intervention abroad and more. Back in April, she went so far as to invite the Vermont senator to work with the Green Party to "ensure the revolution for people, planet and peace will prevail."

Republicans dismayed that [Sleezebag] wouldn't promote free trade, cut federal spending, reform immigration or curb entitlements will be cheered by Johnson's platform. A former two-term Republican governor of New Mexico, he compiled a record to back up his promises. With a Democratic legislature, the conservative National Review raved, "Johnson's main impact was in vetoing an astonishing 739 bills over his eight years in office."

The existing two-party system has been the mainstay of American politics for a century and a half. But the discontent felt this year among Democrats as well as Republicans suggests there is an opportunity for the Greens and the Libertarians to establish themselves in the national consciousness in a lasting way.

Can either win? Not this time. But that's no reason Americans disgusted with the major party choices have to settle on either. It's not "wasting your vote," as the old bromide says, to cast a ballot for a long-shot candidate because he or she offers something valuable that mainstream candidates don't. Attracting voters is how small parties get bigger.

A strong showing by Stein, Johnson or both might not transform America's political landscape. But it could push a reassessment of old policies that have acquired immunity from reform. It could put provocative new ideas on the national agenda.

It also could force the major parties, which have disappointed voters so badly this year, to do better in 2020 and beyond. If so, Democrats and Republicans might thank Stein and Johnson for running.

-----------------------------------------

Okay, a couple of things.
1) Dr. Jill Stein is the most successful woman presidential candidate in American history. ( Hillary has never stood for a general presidential election. )

2) While Gary Johnson did not technically get 1% of the vote in 2012, he did get at least 0.99% and since the vote is usually expressed as rounded to the nearest % or tenth of one, saying he didn't get 1 % is misleading, and usually an indicator of bias.

3) As for being on the ballot in all 50 states, Johnson was on 48 last time. I think the Greens were on 20 - 30.  Both are striving for 50 this time. But at the same time, the establishment realizes what's at stake, and is being a pain in the butt about it. Ohio passed a law which de-certified the Libertarians, but they still expect to get Johnson on the ballot as an independent. PA tried to change the rules, but they have a pending court case on the issue, and 10s of thousands of signatures. It should happen one way or another. Illinois is likewise being obstinate, demanding 25,000 signatures, but The Libertarians have 50,000 ready for submission there, just for insurance.  In short, the Libertarians are largely up to the challenge, but ClinTrump is making them pay for it, and their pockets aren't deep. The Greens already missed one deadline. Chances are they will be at least 6 states short. Their only hope is in the courts.

Can they win? Seeing as how the major parties haven't even confirmed their nominees as yet, and the ballots aren't printed, and early voting hasn't begun, nobody has been mathematically eliminated.

Both Stein and Johnson filed a lawsuit a long time ago about the standards for inclusion in the debate. If that comes through, the Greens could qualify.

I have a feeling that Stein, who is smarter and prettier than Bernie, would make Hillary sweat in a debate. I would dearly love to see Gary, the New Mexico construction guy debate the Wall with [Sleezebag]. Where are you going to get the water for the concrete in the desert? Which side of the Rio Grande are we going to seal off, or are we going to build it mid river?

Well, everything matters. Getting into the debates, having a good performance, and making it a 3 or 4 way race lowers the threshold, and kicks the election into the House, where I frankly think that Johnson's chances are best, and Stein's are the worst, of the four. Particularly since [Sleezebag] university goes to court after the election. But the house only considers the top 3 who have won at least one state.

While established parties will get convention bumps, I think that their general trend will be downwards as they go negative against each other, and the electorate realizes that they are both right about the other's disqualifications for the office. Plus, I'm sure [Sleezebag] can find more dictators to praise, and more Clinton scandals to talk about. Or Putin might release stolen e-mails. The trouble with that is that one candidate could potentially implode between now and November, and allow the other to reach 270.

In other words, I still think that this year, anything could happen. At the very least something that
never happened before will- We'll elect a woman, a 3rd party, or somebody with no elected government or military experience.














Offline Buster's Uncle

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Re: US Presidential Contenders
« Reply #1585 on: July 08, 2016, 12:14:17 AM »
Pentecostal - he's a lovely fellow who would no doubt be horrified that you think that and really believe you're wrong.  I dunno about climate change, but he's certainly very into denial...

-To his credit, he does not, in fact, think much of the Pig.  But he was telling me about some evil election fraud shenanigans Labor allegedly pulled - true for all I know, but if he was a yank and a few names were changed, it would set off all sorts of right-wing fantasy bullcrap alarms.

Kids; you can tell 'em anything until you can't tell them anything for about ten years until life teaches them...


It's not just me that thinks that about the ALA.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-13/australian-liberty-alliance-says-members-vilified/7242778
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australian-liberty-alliance-the-antiislam-donald-trumpstyle-party-claims-major-growth-20160406-go08lq.html
http://www.news.com.au/entertainment/angry-anderson-joins-antiislam-party-to-chase-a-senate-seat-at-the-federal-election/news-story/cf23fd04d6e709c99d5feaeacb818f11

The three main news outlets (one left, one centre and one right).

The ALA was launched by Geert Wilders last year.  Says it all.

EDIT:
About the Labor fraud thing he spoke of.......

Okay, they did some really dodgy campaigning.  They claimed that the Coalition was going to privatise Medicare (our universal healthcare system).  Yes, that is not strictly true.  A budgetary committee did recommend last year to privatise certain parts of Medicare, such as the administration side to provide savings and efficiency.  But never has the entire privatisation of Medicare been on the cards.

Labor did play an entire scare campaign on that.  But the Coalition did not come out strongly opposed to smash the scare campaign down.  So their fault too.  In the end, Coalition has a history of saying one thing and doing the opposite on the huge items.  So it's pretty easy to draw a similarity between previous things and Medicare.
Oh, I believed you to begin with - but I tend to doubt he's racist himself, just foolishly supporting racists and you couldn't tell him that.  Church people vote hate politics all the time because they're suckers in a sucker culture that's been gulled by hateful politicians, not in my experience, because they're more hateful, au contraire.  -Though they certainly have their little bigotries, some of which are actually part of their religion, many they only think are...

Offline Rusty Edge

Re: US Presidential Contenders
« Reply #1586 on: July 08, 2016, 08:10:05 AM »
Recent Gleanings-

It's interesting to read the slants from various sources. In the beginning it was a lot of "Who is he?" "Who does he hurt the most?" " Is he right or left?"

Right Wing publications such as The Washington Times denounced him to begin with when they figured he was taking votes from [Sleezebag]. Now they seem to be supporting him, so they must have decided that the same polls are 1% closer with Johnson factored in.

Some of the Left leaning publications such as Salon seemed set against him , too.

Of course there were Libertarian blogs, etc. that said Johnson wasn't Libertarian enough.

----------------

Nate Silver thinks Johnson should be included in the polls as a third option now.

--------=-----

Apparently there will be a challenge to [Sleezebag] at the GOP. ( Contested Convention #2, Following in the footsteps of the Libertarians) It won't work, but it will weaken him.

------------------------

"The State Department will now focus on whether current employees involved in handling or sending and receiving Clinton's emails should get disciplinary action, which could range from a reprimand to losing their security clearance. Former employees found to be mishandling classified information could also have notes put in their file that could also have consequences if they seek future employment with the government and need security clearance."

http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/07/politics/state-department-reopens-probe-into-clinton-emails/index.html

-------------------

Bernie will finally endorse Hillary next week, so no contested convention for the Democrats.


Offline Buster's Uncle

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Re: US Presidential Contenders
« Reply #1587 on: July 08, 2016, 12:19:19 PM »
On that last - I wonder what they had to offer him to get that, if true.

Offline Rusty Edge

Re: US Presidential Contenders
« Reply #1588 on: July 08, 2016, 05:16:14 PM »
On that last - I wonder what they had to offer him to get that, if true.


It doesn't say.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/08/us/politics/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton.html?_r=0

It could be the Trans Pacific Partnership. Or maybe he figured he's got as much as he's going to get, and he only hurts Hillary by dragging his feet while she's in a rough patch, and he despises [Sleezebag]. Or maybe it's just about how he wants to be remembered.

He didn't take my advice of going Green.

Offline Buster's Uncle

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Re: US Presidential Contenders
« Reply #1589 on: July 08, 2016, 06:09:15 PM »
He could drop back independent, but I predict medium-high confidence that he'll stay and make at least cursory efforts to try to work up a movement in the Democratic Party - that was the whole point the entire time, after all.

 

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