The Civ: Beyond Earth Predictions Game

[sisko]

About:
This is a forum game where each of us can make predictions about the future release of Civilization: Beyond Earth and how will impact this game our community.

Prediction Rules:
Maximum period of predictions is one year from the release of the game (this is when the game will end). There is no minimum period.
The subject of the prediction must be related (in any way) to the game Civilization: Beyond Earth and the way it will impact our small community or the greater Civ community.
The predictors must provide an argument explaining why the subject of their prediction is important and why they think they will be proved right by the end of the game. To enter the competition, each prediction must be approved by two AC2 admins based on the importance of the predicton and whether or not the predictor has a real chance to lose.
At the conclusion of each prediction there will be public examination of the original
argument(s), to see how they match with reality. The result will always be win/lose.
Each win will earn it's predictor a point in the competition.
Predictions made before the release of the game will count as double.
The winner of the game will be the one with the most points and will receive the 'Official AC2 Empath' award as well as a place in the AC2 Hall of Fame.

Example of prediction: "By the end of the game, the AC2 forum folder 'Civ:Beyond Earth' will have more threads as well as more posts than the SMAC folder"

So, who wants to play the predictions game?

[t_ras]

By the end of the game SMAC forum will have at least 6 ACTIVE PBEMs

[sisko]

By the end of the game SMAC forum will have at least 6 ACTIVE PBEMs

you mean 6 active PBEM games 'at the end of the game' or 'at anytime time during the game'?

[t_ras]

'at the end of the game'

[sisko]

Another example of prediction about CivBE (the guy was pretty close to nailing them all):

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PILRKZ_7fXM" target="_blank" class="aeva_link bbc_link new_win">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PILRKZ_7fXM</a>

[t_ras]

He is good

[Geo]

Yep, he only missed the Kavithan Protectorate. And switched the PAU with his alleged middle eastern faction.

[Yitzi]

Here's a prediction: Civ:BE will be the most mid-to-late-game-ICS-friendly civ game ever (here defining ICS as placing bases as close as is possible, i.e. if bases have to be 3 spaces away then a base spacing of exactly 3 is ICS).

Why I think this: In other civ games, most base boosts were percentage-based, and therefore gave more bang for their buck in larger cities.  As a result, ICS, while often powerful, did have some limit on it.  But in BE, there are a lot of "flat value" base boosts (similar to recycling tanks in SMAC/X), and those are very ICS-friendly, because they allow the city square to be more productive than non-city squares even later in the game.  The system designed to prevent ICS, on the other hand, is a joke; once you get genetics (a fairly early tech) the -4 health from a city can be negated by spending 60 production on a clinic for +2 health (1 basic, and one as the optional boost) and 95 on a pharmalab for another +2 (or +3 if you choose bonus health instead of science).  This leaves only the population-based unhealth, which doesn't matter whether it's in a few large cities or a lot of smaller ones (and can also be negated and more by having the population work biowells, but that's another point.)

Secondary prediction: If the above prediction fails, it will be because the penalty to tech and virtue cost by the number of cities is either fairly substantial, or grows faster than the number of cities.

(Personally, I think that if you're going for a happiness-based counter to ICS, you can't do better than something along the lines of SMAC/X's bureaucracy drones, at least once total drones stop being capped at 2 per population.)

[Green1]

There are a lot of variables and wild cards here.

First, I will assume Firaxis will not majorly screw up. Think Elemental : War of Magic level screw up. Although, I doubt that will happen.

Second, I assume no sea change in the kind of people attracted to such games. Other genres have attracted different player bases and cultures that chased others away, affecting the design of all future games in that genre.

Third, I assume that Firaxis will not have it's own forums which are superior to any fan forum out there. An example would be ageofwonders heaven at heaven games. It was decimated when the developer came up with better forums with its new game and is now almost to the point of irrelevancy except for tools for the older versions.

THAT SAID... this is how it will impact AC2.

It will have a SLIGHT loss of traffic if you have NO Civ BE content. By that I mean mostly modders but also AARs and MP. Your current audience is older and has memories of AC. But younger folks will be googling for Civ:BE topics. You will not show up. Some may migrate towards those places, but there is something to be said about this board's culture as compared to larger boards.

If you have A LOT of Civ BE content, you may double or triple in size. Particularly useful mods and patches and such.

[Buster's Uncle]

Eh.

We got a bump from the announcement in the spring, and we'll get a bump Friday and thereafter.

But we're not going to get Civ5ed.  sisko is concentrating on BE content, I'm concentrating on SMACX - because we need to keep doing what we already did, or risk being gutted if the Shiny New Thing turns out to suck.  We've both stepped up our activity, both content and promotion, and I'm pretty content that our house is in order, just as I planned in the spring.

We're gonna see an activity/membership profit from this; and the new people who stick will tend to be our kind of crowd, just as always.  We know what we're doing.

[Green1]

Eh.

We got a bump from the announcement in the spring, and we'll get a bump Friday and thereafter.

But we're not going to get Civ5ed.  sisko is concentrating on BE content, I'm concentrating on SMACX - because we need to keep doing what we already did, or risk being gutted if the Shiny New Thing turns out to suck.  We've both stepped up our activity, both content and promotion, and I'm pretty content that our house is in order, just as I planned in the spring.

We're gonna see an activity/membership profit from this; and the new people who stick will tend to be our kind of crowd, just as always.  We know what we're doing.

Sisko would be correct, much to your chagrin.

Your position has one advantage in that while this IS NOT Alpha Centauri 2, it kind of is (nudge nudge EA owns AC...BUUUUUUUUT...)

Problem is, this is also a modding heavy board. I have investigated the skills it takes to mod Civ BE based on Civ 5. It is a huge jump, even for artists. All those leaderheads are presented in 3d and animated unless Civ 5 detects your computer to be a low end lappy. That is not even the biggest deal. XML code is throughout. You change one thing one place, it must be in several others with knowledge as to what is changed and where. There is no one page "all graphics here" pcx or faction .txt.

BUT.. this IS learnable. Problem is, even for Civ 5, the documentation SUCKS from first glance. It tells me fundamentals, yes. But it does not tell Joe gamer how to put in his custom civ of doom in the game in layman's terms that does not cover 50 other aspects of the Civ 5 system!!!!

There will be a market for that....

[sisko]

THAT SAID... this is how it will impact AC2.

It will have a SLIGHT loss of traffic if you have NO Civ BE content. By that I mean mostly modders but also AARs and MP. Your current audience is older and has memories of AC. But younger folks will be googling for Civ:BE topics. You will not show up. Some may migrate towards those places, but there is something to be said about this board's culture as compared to larger boards.

If you have A LOT of Civ BE content, you may double or triple in size. Particularly useful mods and patches and such.

@Green1: this is too vague for the Predictions Game. Are we going to double in size or not?

[Green1]

So many variables, Sisko. A lot is out of your hands.

Depends on content of the posters.

AARs help, yesssindeed. But, if one has voice and editing talent youtube is the place.

Mods.. you have this, they will come but leech bandwidth from the host.

Keep as you are, slightly the same, probably lower. Smax has nostalgia value. But.. go with Civ BE and as long as release is not a Elemental :WoM class failure, it should be okay for a few years.

It is hard to know, not knowing the goal. I mean, do you want to have to hire 3 mods? Is the goal a public service? I really do not know. Do you want to be like Quarter past 3?

There are many possible futures.